Obama’s $9.05 Trillion Deficit Actually Depends on Stunning Growth to Stay at that "Low" Level
And we all know how good Team Obama is at estimates
Peak growth in the last expansion? 3.6%.
Obama’s glide path to fiscal responsibility — where we merely run nearly a trillion dollars in deficits every single year — relies upon the assumption we’ll rocket to 3.8% growth by 2011 and then in excess of 4% growth for three years running, 2012-2014.
And based on those rosy projections, we’ll merely run a $905 billion deficit every year. If it’s lower than that — which, of course, it will be — then the deficits will be… who knows. It’s not real money anymore anyway. It’s just ZimbabweBucks.
What is the likelihood of such a rare rocket-like recovery? Not terribly good.
Claims of imminent recovery are based primarily on France and Germany barely ending contraction (i.e., they squeaked like 0.1 -0.2% growth, if you can call it that).
They are likely to contract again — the dreaded double-dip. (And two dips might not be the end of it.)
Obama’s $9.05 Trillion Deficit Actually Depends on Stunning Growth to Stay at that “Low” Level
